![]() This is like the Greek, the Roman, the Arabic era and the Renaissance, all rolled into one ten- to thirty-year period. How can I say that I think there is zero chance?īecause we are in the early beginnings of the acceleration/exponential curve of so many technologies – at the same time – that humanity will never have lived through anything like this before. I might not yet have the right basket but that will come over time as we learn. ![]() You see, in my mind there is absolutely zero chance this trade won’t work. While everyone hates tech, I sit and quietly observe, biding my time, waiting to add. If you remember, the ‘70s were one of the very few times in history where inflation fell during a recession and then picked up again afterwards, going to new highs.Įveryone is utterly convinced that deglobalisation will create higher goods prices sticky prices and rising commodities will add to this due to underinvestment. Market participants are utterly convinced that we are going to see a re-run of the 1970s. It is a five year plus view, so I have to look at it in those terms. I tend not to look at the long-term portfolio on a yearly basis as it fucks with your mind. If you strip out the long-term portfolio it was a “ meh ” year – neither here nor there. I have an outstanding buy order in ETH (not yet filled) and will add to SOL later in this publication. My views are still as strong as they have ever been, and I have been adding into weakness. As a guideline, my weightings have been 80% ETH, 20% other stuff. The biggest trade by far – ETH – is still up 400% from our entry. The long-term portfolio was a horror story, but one which was broadly expected and acceptable (although still painful). Thank goodness for $/JPY which helped offset the bonds! The core trades overall were pretty much a wash – bonds lost money while FX and carbon made money. On the trading side, we did very nicely in FX, nailing the strong dollar and getting out at the right time. ![]() The Fed want to be stickier on rates than in previous cycles so we will have to be patient. ![]() We were too early in bonds (again! I am always too early!) but we added into recent weakness and will add more as things unfold. I have made it very clear over the course of the year why I chose not to trade around our core crypto bets and prefer the buy, hold and add strategy and I will continue to do just that. We got the timing about right in ETH, but SOL got caught in the FTX fallout and fell sharply. We also added to our core long-term crypto holdings into the big sell-off in June. We started adding Exponential Age stocks in the summer, which was too early as ever! But this is a long-term theme, and we are looking to add further in the coming weeks. The overriding idea was to use the coming recession to get into our long-term themes, or to add to them. Overall, we mainly sat on our hands during the year and traded very little. ![]() We have been calling for a recession in early 2023 since then. To be fair, we called the business cycle spot on, all the way back in early 2022. I hope you find it useful and interesting. I also like to review the previous year and set some expectations for the year ahead. The idea is to encourage us all to step back, think about things a little differently, learn something new and enjoy reading an eclectic selection of articles on a wide range of topics that will hopefully inspire you. If you are new to Global Macro Investor, the January Monthly is traditionally presented in a completely different format to the rest of the year: the comprehensive annual January Think Piece. In this Think Piece I cover the full story of GMI. Well, this year marks eighteen years of writing Global Macro Investor I can't quite believe where all the time has gone! What a hell of a journey it's been. You can also visit this link if you’d rather read the report in PDF format. Like I noted in the video, here are the links for you to learn more and receive your special offers to both GMI and Real Vision's Pro Macro. Any trade recommendations have been removed. I am publishing several chapters today for readers of Short Excerpts from Global Macro Investor (All of you!) as we continue through a precarious, volatile year. Before we dive in, it’s important to note that this piece was published on January 9 th 2023 exclusively for GMI clients. ![]()
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